โ˜…free guideโ˜…

How to Run a Discount Without Losing Money The promo planner and profit calculator

Every discount you run gets paid for out of your own profit, on every order it touches. If you make $40 on a $100 product, 20% off cuts that to $20, so you need DOUBLE your usual orders just to make the same money as a normal week. ๐Ÿคฏ

This guide is for Shopify store owners who want to run a sale, a welcome code or any other discount, at ANY time of year, and still come out ahead. Inside you'll find a quick way to work out how many orders an offer needs, a calculator to compare your options, a one-page promo planner, and ideas for what to offer instead of a percent off.

And to be clear, running a sale is totally fine! Brands doing over a million a year were asked what would happen if they ran the whole holiday season with no discounts at all, and 44% said they'd expect revenue to drop 15% or more. So yes, most of us are going to run one. I just want you to know what it's for and what it has to bring in before it goes live.

Start by deciding what the discount is for

A discount costs you money on every single order, so it should be buying you something specific. These are the three things I'd happily pay for, each with a quick test:

What you want it to do The one-line test
Win a first order Is this offer only reaching people who have never bought from you?
Clear stock that's just sitting there Is it limited to the named products you want gone, and nothing else?
Get someone to a bigger basket Does the customer have to spend MORE than your normal average order to get it?

An offer can totally do more than one of these. If it can't pass any of the tests, though, have a think about what that discount is actually buying you.

How many orders a discount needs to make the same profit

Back to that $100 product. It costs you $60 to land, so you make $40 on every sale. At 20% off it sells for $80 and you make $20. To make the same profit as a normal week, you need double the orders.

Find your margin on the left and your discount along the top:

Your margin 10% off 20% off 30% off
40% 1.3x the orders 2x the orders 4x the orders
50% 1.25x 1.7x 2.5x
60% 1.2x 1.5x 2x

For an offer that isn't a percent off (a gift, free shipping, a bundle), the sum is: normal profit per order รท profit per order with the offer. A gift that costs you $6 on that same $100 product leaves $34, and 40 รท 34 is about 1.2x. Way easier to hit than 2x. ๐Ÿ’ธ

Offer calculator Compare a discount, free shipping and a gift

Want to see it with your own numbers? Type in your order value and your costs, and the calculator shows what you'd keep per order at full price, at 10 to 30% off, with free shipping, with a free gift, and with a gift plus free shipping. It also shows how many extra orders each offer needs to match your baseline. It's profit per order, before ad spend and fees.

OfferYou keep per orderCustomer seesExtra orders to match

The numbers in the boxes are examples. Swap in a real product and the table updates. Profit here is per order, before ad spend and fees.

The promo planner One row per offer

Copy the headings below and paste them into a Google Sheet (they drop straight into columns). Give every offer its own row, fill it in BEFORE anything goes live, and leave the last column for afterwards.

Offer	What it's for	Who gets it	Dates	Cost per order	Orders needed	Result

How to fill each column:

  • Offer: exactly what the customer sees. "20% off sitewide" or "free mini with orders over $80".
  • What it's for: a first order, clearing stock, a bigger basket, or a mix.
  • Who gets it: new subscribers, everyone, past customers, or named products only. This should match what the offer is for.
  • Dates: a start AND an end. An offer with no end date is the one that's still live in March.
  • Cost per order: the dollars you give up each time. The discount amount, the gift's cost to you, or the shipping you're now paying.
  • Orders needed: from the table or the calculator above. Then turn it into a real number: if a normal week is 50 orders and you need 2x, your target is 100.
  • Result: orders, average order value and profit per order. Profit per order is the figure to trust.

Here are some examples. The numbers are made up to show you how it works, so run your own:

Offer What it's for Who gets it Dates Cost per order Orders needed Result
20% off sitewide More orders in general (it doesn't pass any of the three tests) Everyone 1 to 14 May $20 on a $100 order 2x, so 100 orders a week instead of 50
Free mini with orders over $120 Bigger basket Everyone 27 to 30 Nov $6 1.2x, so 60 orders instead of 50
30% off last season's colors Clear stock Named products only 1 to 14 Jan $30 4x on those products (which is fine, they're costing you money sitting there)

Row one is the row to look hardest at. It might still be the right call for your brand, but now you can see what it has to deliver.

What to offer instead of a percent off

Shoppers in the same report were asked which incentives sway them. Free or fast shipping came first at 53.3%, a gift with purchase got 48.2%, a strong returns or guarantee policy 30.6%, and bundles or a better deal for buying more 29.2%. So you've got options before you reach for the code.

What you want it to do Swap the discount for Example
Win a first order A welcome kit or starter set, a free gift on the first order, free shipping on the first order, a money-back guarantee Harry's sells a $10 starter set (handle, one cartridge, shave gel and a travel cover) with a 30-day refund if you don't love it
Win a first order A gift stack with the value written next to each gift RYZE lists every free gift with a dollar value beside it: Mush Magnet $5, Spoon & Scoop $10, US shipping $4. (They run a percent off alongside it, so this one's a stack)
Clear stock A mystery box, a bundle that pairs the slow mover with a hero, or the slow stock as the free gift on bigger orders
Clear stock If you do discount it, named products only. This is the one place I'm fine with going deeper
Bigger basket A gift at a spend threshold set just above your average order Three Ships Beauty: "FREE MINI TOTE WITH ORDERS +$85"
Bigger basket A free shipping threshold, or a bundle priced as a set Huel: free shipping at $65+

Whatever you swap in still goes through the planner, and the margin has to stay profitable. A gift has a cost per order too.

Your next move

If you'd love help planning offers that are profitable for YOUR store and YOUR margins, that's what my Growth Lab is for (tailored strategy and support for Shopify founders at zero to $10k months). Jump on a call to learn more!